Food security has rarely been so prominent in the news as it has been this week. Taken individually, the stories are about different pressures on the food system. Put together, however, they raise a bigger question about how resilient the UK’s food supply really is.

The most eye-catching warning came from the NFU. Its analysis of government data found that UK self-sufficiency fell in 10 out of 11 food commodities between 1995 and 2024, including beef. The UK, once a net exporter of wheat, is now 90% self-sufficient, while self-sufficiency in potatoes has fallen from 90% to 70% and fresh vegetables from 74% to 55%.

NFU president Tom Bradshaw put the concern starkly: “We can’t rely on the rest of the world to feed us.”

For the meat industry, however, perhaps the more important point is what happens when falling domestic production starts eroding the infrastructure around it. The Times this week highlighted the danger of losing the “critical mass” needed to sustain an efficient food supply chain, pointing to the decline in abattoir numbers as an example. That closely echoes the concern BMPA has been raising for a few year, now that declining self-sufficiency is not simply a farming issue if it also weakens the processors and other businesses needed to support domestic production.

Resilience means protecting processing too

That question of infrastructure was also at the heart of industry reaction to last week’s National Audit Office report on food supply resilience.

The NAO found that no individual food supply chain assets are currently included in the government’s Critical National Infrastructure Knowledge Base. Farmers Weekly reported concerns from BMPA and others over what this could mean in a serious power, fuel or other supply disruption.

As BMPA technical operations director David Lindars explained “If the abattoir and cutting plant has no power, fresh and frozen meat will start to decay rapidly.” The consequences would quickly travel back up the chain as animals begin backing up on farms.

The NAO’s assessment is not that the food system is currently failing. Indeed, it found that the supply chain has generally proved resilient through Covid, the war in Ukraine and other recent disruption. But it also concluded that the risk of a more severe event is increasing and that Defra needs to do more to engage businesses and understand critical points of vulnerability.

That matters in a highly efficient, just-in-time food system where processing plants, cold stores, logistics, power and fuel are all interdependent.

Costs are another form of pressure

Economic resilience is part of the same picture. The Food and Drink Federation now expects food inflation to reach 3.9% by Christmas before peaking at 6.4% in July 2027. That is considerably below its forecast from six months ago, but still points to continuing pressure from energy, extreme weather, international conflict and regulatory costs.

The fact that government advice is now also encouraging households to keep several days of food and water available for emergencies is another sign that preparedness is moving higher up the agenda. It should not be interpreted as a prediction of imminent shortages, but it does underline how seriously resilience is now being discussed.

And there is vulnerability further upstream

A new study of European protein supplies adds another dimension particularly relevant to livestock production. Researchers modelled what would happen if soybean and soymeal imports into the EU and UK stopped completely.

Even with a major expansion in domestically grown legumes, Europe could not replace the lost high-protein feed. The model produced a 150% increase in soybean prices and a 2–3% fall in livestock production, with pigs and poultry particularly exposed. The UK currently imports around three million tonnes of soybean derivatives.

The scenario is a stress test rather than a prediction, but its message serves as a useful reminder that dependence on international markets does not begin at the point where finished food is imported. Domestic livestock production itself relies on internationally traded inputs.

None of these developments in isolation means Britain faces an immediate food shortage. Together, though, they make a persuasive case for looking at food security as a whole system.

For meat, that means maintaining not just livestock production but the processing capacity, cold chain, energy supplies, transport, feed inputs and viable businesses that allow domestically produced food to reach consumers.

Food security ultimately depends on keeping the whole chain functioning.