When Keir Starmer hosts European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on Monday for the first UK-EU summit there will be plenty of briefing about a ‘deal’, but what will actually be settled next week, and where will business need to engage in the months ahead?
The summit will probably agree three things:
A security and defence partnership – this will be a political agreement rather than a legally-binding treaty, but it will open up EU-underwritten defence procurement for UK firms, once other negotiating priorities like fish are broadly settled.
A statement of shared geo-political principles – likely to include ongoing support for Ukraine and sanctions on Russia, commitment to ‘open’ trade and the rules-based, multilateral order, peace in Gaza, cooperation on illegal migration and the ongoing importance of development aid. This may attract much of the media attention as a perceived snub to Trump.
A ‘roadmap’ for the economic negotiation. This is the real substance for business. This would be an outline heads of agreement with the level of ambition still to be determined. But it will almost certainly include aiming for:
- a food standards (SPS) deal on the basis of aligned rules
- enhanced energy cooperation
- aligning carbon pricing and border taxes
- youth mobility
- mutual recognition of professional qualifications
- mutual recognition of product assessments
- a deal on fisheries access.
So this will not be a ‘deal’, but the next step in the talks process; effectively the setting of the agenda for formal talks which will start over the Summer or in the Autumn and carry on into 2026.
The big question on both sides has always been ‘what is the level of ambition?’ But that means different things in London and Brussels. For Starmer and Reeves, it is about EU willingness to move beyond the ‘contagion’ fears of the immediate 2016 UK Brexit vote and recognising the shared interests of reducing trade barriers in the age of Trump. But for EU Member States, whose UK trade is pretty well secured by the current deal, it’s about the willingness of a pro-European Prime Minister with a huge majority, early in his term, to defend closer cooperation.
The summit is less a negotiation, more a sizing-up exercise where both sides test the other’s appetite for flexibility. This is where the EU hope to start pinning down Starmer publicly on their priorities where there is push-back not just from opposition Brexiteers, but within government, in particular on a youth mobility scheme which would drive up migration numbers.
Perhaps the key outcome from the summit, then, will not be written down anywhere; it will be the EU’s impression of Starmer’s willingness to ultimately push his government to agree an ambitious enough youth mobility deal to satisfy Germany and others, and to justify re-opening the deal. EU capitals will be tough here and may even dilute the summit outcomes; for example, they are demanding strict conditionality between ongoing fisheries access and any SPS deal – potentially undermining the benefits for the UK food sector unless Starmer agrees. Familiar trade-offs such as Gibraltar will re-appear through the negotiations, threatening progress.
How should business engage?
The summit will effectively agree the agenda for trade talks. If issues businesses care about are missing, there is still a small window to push for inclusion before the EU, in particular, sets their negotiating mandate, in the Summer or early Autumn. After that, it will be very hard to change. On negotiating substance, the time to make the case for ambitious outcomes is now, backed with evidence about the potential for growth and jobs. If – as currently seems likely – the level of ambition is relatively low, then this is the time to argue for prioritisation, particularly on the UK side. The government will be particularly interested in where business can help make the case for ambition on the other side of the Channel.