Recent food price inflation is a symptom of a much longer-term and structural problem in the UK’s food supply chain.

AHDB’s long-term outlook for the UK’s beef and lamb supply paints a concerning picture of reducing supply, increasing demand and a resultant erosion of our national food security and self-sufficiency. This trend is already underway and is manifesting in UK processors paying the highest ever farmgate prices (some of the highest in the world). Given this warning sign, it’s important that government policy supports and encourages production instead of incentivising farmers to withdraw from livestock production. Sadly, government policy and changes to direct payments seem to be accelerating the decline and forcing farmers out of food production or even out of farming all together.

The same worrying trend can be seen in the abattoir sector which has had a very long-term decline in numbers. The forecast decline in stocking numbers will lead to reduced throughput, with some abattoirs becoming unviable, further weakening our domestic food security. Our fear is that, despite warnings, government underestimates the impact this will have on the UK’s food system and the damage could take decades to reverse.