Possible ripple effects into the UK of the EU / Mercosur deal

Recent geopolitical developments appear to have galvanised EU and South American negotiators into action to finalise the two-decades long trade deal negotiations. But the effects will be felt unevenly, with manufacturers set to benefit while farming will face stiffer competition.

While it's early days, tariff-free access into the EU for South American beef could put pressure on prices in the EU which, in turn, will make the UK market more attractive to EU suppliers whose product has been displaced from the European market by South American imports. We're already seeing a gradual uptick in imports of Irish beef as a result of falling production here in the UK. But more pressure from cheaper European imports, coupled with a tougher EU market in which our exporters must compete could signal farm gate price pressure here in the UK.