There have been numerous discussions in the media in the last week around UK food security and potential supply shocks driven by the war in Iran. While there are undoubtedly pressures on the system, it’s worth addressing a few mis-conceptions and identifying which scenarios are realistic and which are unlikely to eventuate.

This week, the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit published a report which garnered a lot of interest in the press. It said that food prices are on track to be 50% higher than 2021 by November this year . At the same time, a policy paper published by the Co-operative Party and seen by The Guardian warned that meat imports rose by 15% in 2025 which they say signals a worrying loss of self-sufficiency. The report says this could be remedied by re-imagining farming to focus more on agricultural co-operatives which would “align economic resilience with democratic ownership”. The Times and the i Newspaper also picked up on this and, in addition, pointed to the threat of “shortages of chicken and pork” if the Strait of Hormuz closure continues, leading to “a run on carbon dioxide worldwide, critical to the slaughter industry and food preservation.” This was probably partly driven by the government’s own ‘worst case scenario’ planning for carbon dioxide shortages a few weeks ago.

Firstly, it’s worth noting that there is no immediate concern over Co2 supplies. We are confident that the Government’s proactive move to re-open the Ensus bioethanol plant, coupled with their understanding that abattoirs along with nuclear power plants and the NHS must be prioritised will mean that the meat industry is well placed to weather any short term supply shortage. We don’t believe this will lead to meat shortages on the shelves.

On the issue of increasing reliance on imported meat, this is both a normal short term market adjustment to falling output from UK producers and timely warning on the horizon of falling livestock numbers in the UK which, if left unchecked, will have a longer term impact on Britains self-sufficiency and won’t be easily reversed.

Perhaps we can leave it to food industry veteran Lord Stuart Rose to offer the most pragmatic commentary we’ve heard this past week. In an interview on BBC 4’s Today Programme, he said that while he doesn’t predict food shortages, higher prices are inevitable, for which he recommends the remedy of less waste, more seasonal eating and generally cutting back a little on over-consumption. He also advocates for tax breaks for producers and gently suggests that net zero incentives could be exacerbating the food security problem by encouraging farmers to produce less of it.

You can listen to Lord Stuart Rose’s interview from 1:41:00 onwards.