What does access to the Trans-Pacific trade bloc mean for the UK?

Peru’s ratification of the UK’s accession to the Trans-Pacific trade partnership is the final piece to fall into place and clear the way for the UK to join the CPTPP on 15 December 2024. This gives us tariff-free access for most goods into the 11-member trade group.

Following the announcement, we asked BMPA’s Trade Policy Advisor, Peter Hardwick to give us his impressions of the impact this will have on the UK meat trade and what the pros and cons might be. Here’s his reaction.

“BMPA welcomes any opportunity that helps our exporters to open new markets and further develop existing ones. 

“However, though the agreement means that more than 99% of current UK goods exports to CPTPP members will be tariff-free once the deal enters into effect, it also means that the effect is reciprocal and may also lead to increased imports.

“The Government’s own analysis suggests that the agreement could boost the UK economy by around £2 billion annually by 2040. But this is a relatively modest increase given that it is across all sectors of the economy and over 16 years. Far greater growth could be achieved by removing the Brexit trade barriers with our largest export market, the EU.

“To put this in context, UK’s exports of all red meat categories to all of the CPTPP markets combined is currently around 11,500 tonnes per annum, some 10% of all non-EU exports and 2% of total exports. According to estimates, this may increase over time by 60% as a consequence of joining the CPTPP; an additional 7000 tonnes per annum. As a comparison, our exports of these same categories to Belgium alone currently exceed 22,000 tonnes per annum. 

“Naturally, exporters will want to take advantage of any new opportunity that can add value and provide better alternative markets for product, but it is important to stress that the effect of reducing trade friction with our nearest and largest high-value market will have a much greater effect in trade growth and profitability.

“It should also be noted that the agreement will only come into force by 15 December with those members that have ratified; Japan, Singapore, Chile, New Zealand, Vietnam. It will only come into force subsequently with other members as they ratify. No doubt others will ratify quickly but, notably the trade dispute with Canada remains ongoing and will probably delay their ratification.”